OR/13/043 Suggested next steps

Wang, L, Kingdon, A, Shelley, W A, and Smith, N A . 2013. OneRTM: a pilot study for exploring the business case for the next generation of online real-time numerical modelling and data services. British Geological Survey External Report, OR/13/043.

Introducing true real-time datasets

The OneRTM pilot uses synthesized real-time data that was derived from the historical rainfall and potential evapotranspiration datasets (1972–2008); such data are automatically fed into the system every 10 seconds to simulate the real-time situation. A fully functional system will require actual real-time rainfall and real-time potential evapotranspiration data (not yet supplied) from the Met Office to make this system work in real-time. Some technical issues will need to be resolved such as finding ways to automatically transfer real-time data from the Met Office to BGS, and to automatically convert the real-time data into the input formats that groundwater recharge models required in OneRTM.

Developing forecast functions

OneRTM can potentially forecast the future environmental status, and this can be demonstrated in its future development once the forecasted rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data are available from Met Office. Past, current and future modes need to be developed in OneRTM allowing end-users to choose what to view. In addition to the current database that stores the real-time and historic datasets, an extra database will be needed to hold forecast data.

Developing automatic calibration function

OneRTM could be further developed to automatically calibrate the groundwater models when the old version of model does not represent the current situation adequately. Beyond the issues of data access there are also technical challenges in automatically parameterising based on the simulation errors.

Developing other functions

OneRTM will be further developed based on specific requirements from potential end users. This pilot responds to the specific requirements of the water industry and associated regulators.

Vision of how OneRTM will work

Business cases will be developed to customise OneRTM to help solve the real problems in multiple business sectors. These will result in fully enabled OneRTM applications, such as real- time modelling and decision support systems for water companies or local governments. In the longer-term OneRTM could become the basis for developing a platform that serves modelling results in real-time. Services might include:

• Hosting multiple types of real-time models
• Linking these models to simulate complex natural processes
• Providing a wide range of real-time datasets, such as weather, river flow, water quality, crop growth, and even socio-economic activities, to multiple end users including decision makers, governments, the general public and modellers
• Providing functions allowing customers to compare and choose datasets and (or) models
• Providing security protection for internet access to these data and model outputs

This platform will change how numerical models are developed, maintained, and disseminated. Models will no longer be developed just for a certain period of time but are always up-to-date utilising real-time dataset supports from NERC or other organisations; models will be linked with each other in real time through the real-time data flow between them. This process will change how datasets are created, updated, stored and shared. Currently static datasets can be updated in real time through modelling, and stored, and automatically disseminated through the internet. This platform could provide a place where people can easily access, find and utilise both datasets from data providers such as NERC and models. This will make datasets and models created from scientific research integral to many more people’s daily lives.