Editing OR/19/064 About the GeoClimate datasets

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|+ Table 1    GeoClimate Open and Premium comparison.
 
|+ Table 1    GeoClimate Open and Premium comparison.
 
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| ! scope="col" style="width: 210px;" | '''GeoClimate Open'''
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| ! scope="col" style="width: 225px;" | '''GeoClimate Open'''
 
| ! scope="col" style="width: 225px;" | '''GeoClimate Premium'''
 
| ! scope="col" style="width: 225px;" | '''GeoClimate Premium'''
 
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==Background==
 
==Background==
Shrink-swell is recognised as the most costly geohazard across Great Britain. For example due to the hot dry summer of 2018, more than 10 000 households made insurance claims worth a total of £64 million to deal with the impact of subsidence between July and September, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI) (Insurance Times, 2018). This was the highest level of subsidence insurance claims since the heatwaves of 2006 and 2003 (Which.co.uk, 2018). Over an average year, insurers would usually expect to pay out approximately £75 million to rectify  the impact of subsidence on homes (Guardian, 2018).
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Shrink-swell is recognised as the most costly geohazard across Great Britain. For example due to the hot dry summer of 2018, more than 10,000 households made insurance claims worth a total of £64 million to deal with the impact of subsidence between July and September, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI) (Insurance Times, 2018). This was the highest level of subsidence insurance claims since the heatwaves of 2006 and 2003 (Which.co.uk, 2018). Over an average year, insurers would usually expect to pay out approximately £75 million to rectify  the impact of subsidence on homes (Guardian, 2018).
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The BGS GeoSure shrink-swell dataset considers the physical properties of  the  geology to provide a susceptibility rating for potential ground movement. It does not, however, account for changes in climate, and parameters that will affect soil water content.
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GeoClimate clay shrink-swell has been developed to enable  the climate variables to    be considered, alongside the geotechnical properties of the ground immediately below and around the foundations, and provide a longer term, modelled  analysis  for  resilience assessments. It is essentially a national hazard susceptibility map, showing change in susceptibility with time, due to changes in climate. This methodology has been developed by engineering geologists, hydrogeologists, geophysicists and information developers at the British Geological Survey, following stakeholder engagement, and is presented as a series of GIS data layers.
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The UK Climate Projections (UKCP)1 provide an assessment of how the UK climate may change, providing projections of rainfall, temperature and sea level rise during
  
The BGS GeoSure shrink-swell dataset considers the physical properties of  the  geology to provide a susceptibility rating for potential ground movement. It does not, however, account for changes in climate, and parameters that will affect soil water content.
 
  
GeoClimate clay shrink-swell has been developed to enable  the climate variables to    be considered, alongside the geotechnical properties of the ground immediately below and around the foundations, and provide a longer term, modelled  analysis  for  resilience assessments. It is essentially a national hazard susceptibility map, showing change in susceptibility with time, due to changes in climate. This methodology has been developed by engineering geologists, hydrogeologists, geophysicists and information developers at the British Geological Survey, following stakeholder engagement, and is presented as a series of GIS data layers.
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1 h ttp://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/
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The UK Climate Projections (UKCP)<ref group=note>http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/</ref> provide an assessment of how the UK climate may change, providing projections of rainfall, temperature and sea level rise during the 21st Century. In 2009 the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, in collaboration with a consortium of organisations and funded by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), released UKCP09, based on the most sophisticated scientific research, providing projections for three scenarios: low, medium and high greenhouse emissions.
 
  
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the 21st Century. In 2009 the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, in collaboration with a consortium of organisations and funded by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), released UKCP09, based on the most sophisticated scientific research, providing projections for three scenarios: low, medium and high greenhouse emissions.
 
Alongside these global climate models (GCMs), the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) also produced 11 regional climate models (11RCMs) realisations, based on UKCP09 medium emission scenario. CEH utilised these 11RCM to generate  the ‘Future Flows’ datasets, providing available precipitation and GB potential evapotranspiration for hydrological and groundwater modelling (Prudhomme et al., 2012, Boorman et al., 1995, Murphy et al., 2009). This enabled BGS to access the UKCP09 medium emission projection and combine it with BGS geological datasets  and groundwater models, to produce GeoClimate.
 
Alongside these global climate models (GCMs), the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) also produced 11 regional climate models (11RCMs) realisations, based on UKCP09 medium emission scenario. CEH utilised these 11RCM to generate  the ‘Future Flows’ datasets, providing available precipitation and GB potential evapotranspiration for hydrological and groundwater modelling (Prudhomme et al., 2012, Boorman et al., 1995, Murphy et al., 2009). This enabled BGS to access the UKCP09 medium emission projection and combine it with BGS geological datasets  and groundwater models, to produce GeoClimate.
  
==Who might require this data?==
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2.4 WHO MIGHT REQUIRE THIS DATA?
 
Natural ground stability hazards, such as clay shrink-swell may lead to financial  loss  for anyone involved in the ownership or management of property.  These  hazards  could increase in likelihood and propensity when considering the impacts of  a  changing climate. These impacts could relate to increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property.
 
Natural ground stability hazards, such as clay shrink-swell may lead to financial  loss  for anyone involved in the ownership or management of property.  These  hazards  could increase in likelihood and propensity when considering the impacts of  a  changing climate. These impacts could relate to increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property.
 
 
The identification of areas of potential increased risk of clay shrink–swell susceptibility from climate change will be of use to all those required to plan for longer-term resilience into the 21st Century. This includes planners, developers, construction companies, and utility companies, consulting engineers, builders, loss adjusters, the insurance industry, architects and surveyors. These hazards may also impact on anyone involved in infrastructure networks (road or rail) or utility companies.
 
The identification of areas of potential increased risk of clay shrink–swell susceptibility from climate change will be of use to all those required to plan for longer-term resilience into the 21st Century. This includes planners, developers, construction companies, and utility companies, consulting engineers, builders, loss adjusters, the insurance industry, architects and surveyors. These hazards may also impact on anyone involved in infrastructure networks (road or rail) or utility companies.
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The key benefit of GeoClimate is that it provides a ‘hot spot’ map of potential risk  areas, which can inform mitigation strategies (and therefore save time associated with fewer manual site  visits), prioritise works and aid  risk reduction. The  product might  be  used to inform changes in the design of foundations so buildings are not  affected  by the increased hazard. The cost of such prevention may be very low, and is often many times lower than the repair bill following ground movement. When integrated within the workflows of our intended user base it can support  prioritisation  of  remedial action, or help define buildings at most risk, thereby reducing subsidence events and potentially saving the costs of rebuild and disruption.
  
The key benefit of GeoClimate is that it provides a ‘hot spot’ map of potential risk  areas, which can inform mitigation strategies (and therefore save time associated with fewer manual site  visits), prioritise works and aid  risk reduction. The  product might  be  used to inform changes in the design of foundations so buildings are not  affected  by the increased hazard. The cost of such prevention may be very low, and is often many times lower than the repair bill following ground movement. When integrated within the workflows of our intended user base it can support  prioritisation  of  remedial action, or help define buildings at most risk, thereby reducing subsidence events and potentially saving the costs of rebuild and disruption.
 
  
==Footnote==
 
{{reflist|group=note}}
 
  
  
 
[[Category:OR/19/064 User Guide for the British Geological Survey GeoClimateUKCP09: Clay shrink - swell dataset | 04]]
 
[[Category:OR/19/064 User Guide for the British Geological Survey GeoClimateUKCP09: Clay shrink - swell dataset | 04]]

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