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Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:25:24Z

LaurenGiles: /* Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater */ SDGs acronym claritfication

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.themccleerylab.org/uploads/6/0/8/0/60804587/mccleery_et_al._2018_animal_diversity_declines_with_broad-scale_homogenization_of_canopy_cover_in_african_savannas.pdf (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] (SDGs) are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands]. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:24:06Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */ MacDonald et al 2019 link

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.themccleerylab.org/uploads/6/0/8/0/60804587/mccleery_et_al._2018_animal_diversity_declines_with_broad-scale_homogenization_of_canopy_cover_in_african_savannas.pdf (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands]. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:23:02Z

LaurenGiles: /* Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater */ fixing MacDonald et al 2019 link

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.themccleerylab.org/uploads/6/0/8/0/60804587/mccleery_et_al._2018_animal_diversity_declines_with_broad-scale_homogenization_of_canopy_cover_in_african_savannas.pdf (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:19:50Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */ fixing McCleery et al link

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.themccleerylab.org/uploads/6/0/8/0/60804587/mccleery_et_al._2018_animal_diversity_declines_with_broad-scale_homogenization_of_canopy_cover_in_african_savannas.pdf (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:10:14Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:09:46Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */ references hyperlinks/formatting

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T10:01:07Z

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T09:56:28Z

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */ capitalisation

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except Northern and Southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T09:08:22Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */ formatting

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:56:18Z

LaurenGiles: /* Impacts on water supply */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:54:21Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket, are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:54:04Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket. are projected to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:51:14Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al., 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al., 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:50:50Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

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Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al., 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al., 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:49:44Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al., 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:49:21Z

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al., 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:49:04Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al, 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al., 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:48:18Z

LaurenGiles: /* Impacts on water supply */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al, 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al, 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al, 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al, 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:45:11Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al, 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al, 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al, 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al, 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
Impacts on water supply
At a global scale. It’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-18T08:42:03Z

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (Harrington et al, 2016)]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al, 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al, 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
Impacts on water supply
At a global scale. It’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T15:03:32Z

LaurenGiles: references

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Climate Change Projections

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections''.

==Climate Change Projections==

Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)].

With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 Harrington et al, 2016]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)].

Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.

Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)]

*North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.

*Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.

*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

With 1.5°C - 2°C global warming, the impacts in Africa are projected to become widespread and severe. These impacts include:

*Reduced food production
**Many African regions are vulnerable to food insecurity due to low adaptive capacity [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221209551730113X (Evariste et al, 2018)].
**Agricultural activities are mainly rainfed. It’s projected that future climate warming will have an adverse impact on food security in Africa as it coincides with low adaptive capacity and climate change exacerbates other anthropogenic stressors [https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (Adams, L., 2018)].

*Reduced economic growth
**GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries (although there is substantial variation across countries) than if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-warming-has-increased-global-economic-Diffenbaugh-Burke/bdbdf82c149d90c23cf60e489f1873e8d142d12a (Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019)].
**[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273130945_Climate_Change_and_Economic_Growth_in_Africa_An_Econometric_Analysis Abidoye and Odusola] estimated that a 1°C increase in 20 year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe worst affected.

*Increased inequality and poverty
**In urban areas, climate risk and poverty will increasingly coincide. Particularly affected will be fast-growing informal settlements in more exposed, flood-prone areas with limited services (Hallegatte et al., [https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aa3a35e0-2a20-5d9c-8872-191c6b72a9b9/content 2016], [https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9?chapterTab=true 2017]).

*Biodiversity loss
**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al, 2015)].
**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718306384n (McCleery et al, 2018)].
**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

*Increased human morbidity and mortality.
**Climate change is already affecting health outcomes in Africa with increases in temperature-related mortality. Young children, the elderly, pregnant women and people living in poverty are among the most vulnerable to increasing risks to health outcomes (IPCC 2023). [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30380686/ Bishop-Williams et al., 2018] showed that emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase at moderate to high temperatures in Uganda. At 2°C global warming projected rates of heat-related mortality in the Middle East and North Africa, in the >65 years age bracket to increase 8-20 fold in the years 2070-2099 compared with 1951-2005 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 (Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018).]
**Increase in vector-borne diseases. There has been an expansion of the Anopheles vector (of malaria) in higher altitudes in east Africa [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25326716/ (Gone et al, 2014)] and increasing incidence of infection with higher temperatures [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24903061/ (Alemu et al, 2014)]. In southern Africa, malaria transmission is increasing due to changes in temperature and rainfall [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30584427/ (Abiodun et al, 2018]. In east and southern Africa, malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase under 1.5°C-1.7°C global warming [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Prediction-of-future-malaria-hotspots-under-climate-Semakula-Song/8a59ae5ae5e83b31acfda79e4cd057c32c2379ba (Semakula et al, 2017)].

===Impacts on water supply===
Impacts on water supply
At a global scale. It’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town has experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821 (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

===References===
Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).

Ahmadalipour, A. and H. Moradkhani, 2018: Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Environment International, 117, 215–225, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014.

Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane and A. Kumie, 2014: Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. , 13, 223, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-223.

Bishop-Williams, K. E. et al., 2018: Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 15 (11), doi:10.3390/ijerph15112402.

Calow, R.C., Mason, N., Mosello, B. and Ludi, E. (2017). Linking risk with response: options for climate resilient WASH. Technical Brief for the GWP-UNICEF Strategic Framework for WASH Climate Resilience. https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/

Cuthbert, M.O., Taylor, R.G., Favreau, G. et al (2019). Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 572, 230-234 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7

Diffenbaugh, N. S. and M. Burke, 2019: Global warming has increased global economic inequality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (20), 9808–9813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1816020116.

Evariste, F. F., S. Denis Jean, K. Victor and M. Claudia, 2018: Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon. Urban Climate, 24, 1037–1051, doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007.

Gone, T., M. Balkew and T. Gebre-Michael, 2014: Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors, 7 (1), doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9.

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. and Vogt-Schilb, A. (2016). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series, World Bank, Washington D.C.

Harrington, L. J. et al., 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

Hunter, P.R., Zmirou-Navier, D. and Hartemann, P. (2009). Estimating the impact on health of poor reliability of drinking water interventions in developing countries. Science of The Total Environment, Volume 407, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 2621-2624. ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018.

IPCC Interactive Atlas (2021). Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. Interactive Atlas available from Available from https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

IPCC report - https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/

IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).

IPCC (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6): Summary for Policy Makers.

MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3
MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

Milne, R., S. J. Cunningham, A. T. K. Lee and B. Smit, 2015: The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot. Conservation Physiology, 3 (1), doi:10.1093/conphys/cov048.

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.

Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

The Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)

Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6

Semakula, H. M. et al., 2017b: Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change, 143 (3-4), 415–428, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1996-y.

Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

UNISDR Sendai Framework (https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf

2030 Sustainable Development Goals (https://sdgs.un.org/goals)

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:59:58Z

LaurenGiles:

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:52:55Z

LaurenGiles: added impacts section

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:49:35Z

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */ sorting out hyperlinks/refs

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:39:41Z

LaurenGiles: added impacts section

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:31:56Z

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */ opening summary added

Additional resources

2024-03-14T14:25:03Z

LaurenGiles: added climate change projections page

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

This page is still being developed. Please check back soon for more information.

==Information resources on groundwater in Africa==

These pages provide background information on many different aspects of groundwater and hydrogeology, with particular relevance to Africa, and links to more detailed resources.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

These pages have information on the geological and other environmental maps and graphs on the country pages: how they were developed, and links to original data sources.

:- [[Geography| Country boundaries and land surface elevation]]

:- [[Geology | Geology]]

:- [[Climate | Climate]]

:- [[Land cover | Land cover]]

:- [[Soil | Soil]]

:- [[Surface water | Surface water]]

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa:

:- [[Aquifer properties | Aquifer properties]]

:- [[Recharge | Recharge in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality in Africa]]

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Overview of groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]===

:- [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]

:- [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | The Africa Groundwater Atlas country hydrogeology maps]]

===[[Developing groundwater resources | Developing groundwater resources]]===

:- [[Groundwater development techniques | Introduction to groundwater development procedures]]

:- [[Borehole Drilling | Borehole Drilling]], including professionalising drilling

:- [[Manual drilling | Manual drilling]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes | Siting Boreholes]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance | Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance]]

:- [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield |Assessing source yield]]

:- [[Assessing Water Quality | Assessing water quality]]

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

:- [[Groundwater management organisations | Groundwater management organisations]]

:- [[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Groundwater use | Groundwater use in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]===

Information on and links to sources of [[Groundwater Data | groundwater data]] in Africa.

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Africa National Groundwater Databases | '''Inventory of national groundwater databases in Africa''']]

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

:-[[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

:-[[Urban groundwater in Africa | Urban groundwater in Africa]]

:-[[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | Groundwater and irrigation in Africa]]

:-[[Transboundary aquifers | Transboundary aquifers]]

===Case studies===

:- A series of [[Case studies | '''case studies''']] that illustrate different groundwater understanding and management issues across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

Information on key current and past groundwater research themes and projects in Africa.

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Groundwater Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

Links to some of the many professional networks and organisations offer support to those working in groundwater and hydrogeology in Africa.

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

===[[Climate Change Projections | Climate Change Projections]]===

Return to [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Climate Change Projections

2024-03-14T14:24:11Z

LaurenGiles: started page

Africa Groundwater Atlas Home

2024-03-14T14:21:55Z

LaurenGiles: added climate change projections page

{| class = "wikitable"
|+
||[[File:BGS_newlogo.png | 200px]]

||[[File:Logo colour.png |100px]]

||[[File:UPGro Logo.png | 100px]]

||[[File:idslogo.png | 100px]]

|}

'''[[Atlas Eaux Souterraines Afrique | Lire l'Atlas des eaux souterraines d l'Afrique en français]]''' [[File: flag_of_france.png | 50px]]

==Welcome to the Africa Groundwater Atlas==

This Atlas provides a summary of the hydrogeology and groundwater resources of 51 African countries, and a gateway to further information. The aim of the Atlas is to improve the availability and accessibility of high quality information on groundwater in Africa, to support the safe and sustainable development and use of groundwater resources.

As well as information on individual countries, Atlas provides links to further information, including through the [https://www.bgs.ac.uk/africagroundwateratlas/index.cfm Africa Groundwater Literature Archive], and also provides supporting information on many groundwater-related issues that affect sustainable groundwater development, management and use.

The Atlas provides groundwater information and maps at a national scale, not local, site-specific groundwater information. For site-specific groundwater assessments, such as siting new water boreholes, more detailed information is needed.

==Hydrogeology and groundwater resources by country==

===[[Hydrogeology by country | Hydrogeology by country]]===

The [[Hydrogeology by country | '''Hydrogeology by country''']] section provides a profile of each of 51 countries in Africa, and a gateway to further information sources. Each country page provides a summary of the geology and hydrogeology of key aquifers, the status of groundwater resources, and groundwater management. For each country there is also [[Supporting environmental information | supporting environmental information]]: climate, major rivers, soils and land cover.

[[File:AGA_Overview.png | 400px | center ]]

===[[List of Authors | Contributing authors]]===

The country profiles were prepared by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with hydrogeologists, geologists and other groundwater experts from across Africa and beyond. The authors are cited on the relevant country pages, and details of all the [[List of Authors | '''contributing authors''' ]] can be found here.

==[[Additional resources | Resource pages]]==

This section provides a series of pages with additional information on key issues related to hydrogeology, groundwater resources and management in Africa.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

For each country, the Atlas provides maps and graphs with information on environmental parameters closely related to groundwater: [[Geology | ''geology'']], [[Climate | ''climate'']], [[Surface water | ''major rivers'']], [[Soil | ''soils'']] and [[Land cover | ''land cover'']].

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa: [[Aquifer properties | ''aquifer properties'']], [[Recharge | ''recharge'']], and [[Groundwater quality in Africa | ''groundwater quality'']].

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and Hydrogeological Maps of Africa]]===

Information on [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | ''maps of groundwater and hydrogeology of Africa'']], including the [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | ''Africa Groundwater Atlas '''Country Hydrogeology Maps''''']].

===[[Developing Groundwater Resources | Developing groundwater resources (groundwater development)]] ===

Resources relating to the sustainable development of groundwater resources using different [[Groundwater source types | ''groundwater source types'']], including [[Stages in groundwater exploration | ''stages and techniques for groundwater exploration and development'']], such as [[Siting Boreholes | ''siting boreholes'']], [[Borehole Drilling | ''borehole drilling'']], [[Manual drilling | ''manual drilling'']], [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield | ''assessing source yield'']] and [[Assessing Water Quality | ''assessing groundwater quality'']].

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

Organisations supporting groundwater management; information on [[Groundwater monitoring | ''groundwater monitoring'']], [[Groundwater use | ''groundwater use'']] and [[Groundwater Data | ''groundwater data'']] in Africa.

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

Information on key groundwater issues in Africa, including [[Urban groundwater in Africa | ''urban groundwater'']], [[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | ''groundwater and irrigation'']], [[Groundwater quality in Africa | ''groundwater quality'']] and [[Transboundary aquifers | ''transboundary aquifers'']].

===[[Case studies | Case studies]]===

These [[Case studies | case studies]] give practical examples of groundwater issues and how they have been addressed in countries across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater Data]]===

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

===[[Climate Change Projections | Climate Change Projections]]===

==[https://www.bgs.ac.uk/africagroundwateratlas/archive.cfm Africa Groundwater Literature Archive]==

The [https://www.bgs.ac.uk/africagroundwateratlas/archive.cfm '''Africa Groundwater Literature Archive''']
is is an online library of documents about groundwater in Africa - a searchable database holding bibliographic references for thousands of items of literature related to groundwater in Africa. The documents include published and unpublished reports, journal papers, maps, books and academic theses.

Search the Archive by:

:- '''location''' - search for all documents for a particular country; or for many of the documents, search for their detailed location on a map.
:- thematic '''keyword''' - for example, search for documents about ''aquifer characterisation'', ''groundwater quality'', or ''socio-economics''

The Archive gives full bibliographic references and, whereever possible, links to full-text documents.

[[Africa Groundwater Literature Archive description | '''Background information about the Africa Groundwater Literature Archive project''']].

[[File:Archivefront.PNG | 400px | center ]]

==Background to the Africa Groundwater Atlas==

===Further project information===

[[Africa_Groundwater_Atlas_description| '''Further information''']] on the Africa Groundwater Atlas project.

===Terms of use===

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Terms of Use | '''Terms of use''']] for information provided in the Atlas.

===Contact us===

If you would like further information about the Africa Groundwater Atlas, or have groundwater information you would like to see added to the Atlas, please contact us at [mailto:AfricaGWAtlas@bgs.ac.uk AfricaGWAtlas@bgs.ac.uk].

==[[Wikipedia edit-a-thon | Wikipedia edit-a-thon]]==

At the 2019 IAH Congress we ran a [[Wikipedia edit-a-thon | Wikipedia edit-a-thon]] to transfer content from the Africa Groundwater Atlas into Wikipedia, to create the first Groundwater in Africa Wikipedia pages - making hydrogeology information for Africa even more visible and accessible to a wider audience.


[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Additional resources

2024-02-28T14:54:44Z

LaurenGiles: /* Information resources on groundwater in Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

This page is still being developed. Please check back soon for more information.

==Information resources on groundwater in Africa==

These pages provide background information on many different aspects of groundwater and hydrogeology, with particular relevance to Africa, and links to more detailed resources.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

These pages have information on the geological and other environmental maps and graphs on the country pages: how they were developed, and links to original data sources.

:- [[Geography| Country boundaries and land surface elevation]]

:- [[Geology | Geology]]

:- [[Climate | Climate]]

:- [[Land cover | Land cover]]

:- [[Soil | Soil]]

:- [[Surface water | Surface water]]

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa:

:- [[Aquifer properties | Aquifer properties]]

:- [[Recharge | Recharge in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality in Africa]]

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Overview of groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]===

:- [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]

:- [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | The Africa Groundwater Atlas country hydrogeology maps]]

===[[Developing groundwater resources | Developing groundwater resources]]===

:- [[Groundwater development techniques | Introduction to groundwater development procedures]]

:- [[Borehole Drilling | Borehole Drilling]], including professionalising drilling

:- [[Manual drilling | Manual drilling]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes | Siting Boreholes]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance | Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance]]

:- [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield |Assessing source yield]]

:- [[Assessing Water Quality | Assessing water quality]]

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

:- [[Groundwater management organisations | Groundwater management organisations]]

:- [[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Groundwater use | Groundwater use in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]===

Information on and links to sources of [[Groundwater Data | groundwater data]] in Africa.

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Africa National Groundwater Databases | '''Inventory of national groundwater databases in Africa''']]

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

:-[[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

:-[[Urban groundwater in Africa | Urban groundwater in Africa]]

:-[[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | Groundwater and irrigation in Africa]]

:-[[Transboundary aquifers | Transboundary aquifers]]

===Case studies===

:- A series of [[Case studies | '''case studies''']] that illustrate different groundwater understanding and management issues across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

Information on key current and past groundwater research themes and projects in Africa.

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Groundwater Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

Links to some of the many professional networks and organisations offer support to those working in groundwater and hydrogeology in Africa.

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

Return to [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-27T08:39:22Z

LaurenGiles: /* Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa */ hyphenated solar-powered

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar-powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar-powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological and hydrogeological understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-27T08:38:16Z

LaurenGiles: /* Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping */ hyphenated solar-powered

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar-powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological and hydrogeological understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-27T08:37:44Z

LaurenGiles: /* Current Research */ punctuation - improves clarity

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological and hydrogeological understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:15:09Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:14:54Z

LaurenGiles: /* Current Research */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859 Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497 Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:14:39Z

LaurenGiles: /* Current Research */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8 Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:06:12Z

LaurenGiles:

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:03:49Z

LaurenGiles:

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> UN Year of Groundwater

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Solar_Groundwater_Pumping_in_Africa''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:03:26Z

LaurenGiles:

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> UN Year of Groundwater

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T16:02:57Z

LaurenGiles: /* References */ added links at the bottom

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> UN Year of Groundwater

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. UN Year of Groundwater. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''Weblink''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages]] >> Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:39:23Z

LaurenGiles: /* =Current Research */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> UN Year of Groundwater

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. UN Year of Groundwater. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''Weblink''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research====
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:39:11Z

LaurenGiles: added current research and references

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> [[Additional resources | Resource pages ]] >> UN Year of Groundwater

Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. UN Year of Groundwater. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. ''Weblink''.

==Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa==
Solar groundwater pumping is simply the use of solar technologies to provide energy to power groundwater pumps. This replaces other power sources such as diesel or hand pumping.

Solar powered groundwater pumps have dramatically reduced in cost, and increased in reliability, over the last 10 years. They are able to pump at higher yields than handpumps and are more environmentally friendly and cheaper to run than diesel pumps.

In areas where electricity supply may be limited, solar pumps can improve the lives of users by providing cheap and predictable access to groundwater sources. This can then be utilised for drinking water supply or in larger applications including agriculture and irrigation.

Solar pumping effectiveness is directly linked to availability of sun. As such, in water scarce regions prolonged periods of sunlight will increase the potential yield a solar powered pump can provide.

====Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping====
:- The increased potential yields solar pumps can generate could result in over pumping of aquifers and may result in other groundwater supplies drying up. It is recommended that in areas where solar pumping is being utilised, that groundwater monitoring is increased to prevent excessive drawdown and over abstraction.

:- As pumping is directly tied to sunlight hours, storage of groundwater at surface must be considered.

:- Theft and vandalism of the solar and borehole infrastructure. Consideration of security options are advisable if infrastructure is publicly accessible.

:- Maintenance of the pump and solar equipment will be required.

====Further general information on solar groundwater pumping====
:- [https://www.un-igrac.org/stories/solar-powered-groundwater-pumping/ IGRAC - solar powered groundwater pumping]

:- [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/12/19/solar-pumping/ Worldbank - solar pumping video]

====Current Research===
Research into solar groundwater pumping is ongoing. Recent publications include:

:- [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Meunier et al] present modelling results for the African continent and identify areas where solar pumping has the highest potential. Aquifer conditions rather than overall irradiance were found to be the most significant factor affecting photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa. Geological, and hydrogeological, understanding is the key parameter required for effective implementation of solar technologies.

:- [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Jovanović et al] conclude that utilising solar-powered shallow groundwater pumping is viable in their study are (Giyani Municipality) and may benefit water security, increase business activity, increase community involvement, and improve gender equality. They highlighted the need for a good water quality monitoring program to prevent over abstraction of the aquifer as a result of increased ease of access.

:- [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Balasubramanya et al] review the risks associated with the rapid expansion of solar-powered groundwater irrigation. They discus the importance of involving policy makers to negotiate the trade-offs between the irrigation required with food production and the associated poverty alleviations with the unintended consequences in terms of groundwater depletion and potential over abstraction of aquifers.

====References====

Meunier, S., Kitanidis, P. K., Cordier, A. & MacDonald A. M. (2023). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00695-8/ Aquifer conditions, not irradiance determine the potential of photovoltaic energy for groundwater pumping across Africa]. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 52.

Jovanović, N., Mpambo, M., Willoughby, A., Maswanganye, E., Mazvimavi, D., Petja, B., Molose, V., Sifundza, Z., Phasha, K., Ngoveni, B., et al. (2023) [https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063859/ Feasibility of Solar-Powered Groundwater Pumping Systems in Rural Areas of Greater Giyani Municipality (Limpopo, South Africa)]. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 3859.

Balasubramanya, Soumya; Garrick, Dustin; Brozović, Nicholas; Ringler, Claudia; Zaveri, Esha; Kishore, Avinash; et al. 2024. [https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi9497/ Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation]. Science 383(6680): 256-258.

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:34:21Z

LaurenGiles: /* Further general information on solar groundwater pumping */ formatting links

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:32:45Z

LaurenGiles: added info links

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:29:03Z

LaurenGiles:

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:28:09Z

LaurenGiles: /* Challenges with solar powered groundwater pumping */

Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa

2024-02-26T15:26:12Z

LaurenGiles:

Additional resources

2024-02-26T15:24:01Z

LaurenGiles: /* Information resources on groundwater in Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

This page is still being developed. Please check back soon for more information.

==Information resources on groundwater in Africa==

These pages provide background information on many different aspects of groundwater and hydrogeology, with particular relevance to Africa, and links to more detailed resources.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

These pages have information on the geological and other environmental maps and graphs on the country pages: how they were developed, and links to original data sources.

:- [[Geography| Country boundaries and land surface elevation]]

:- [[Geology | Geology]]

:- [[Climate | Climate]]

:- [[Land cover | Land cover]]

:- [[Soil | Soil]]

:- [[Surface water | Surface water]]

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa:

:- [[Aquifer properties | Aquifer properties]]

:- [[Recharge | Recharge in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality in Africa]]

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Overview of groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]===

:- [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]

:- [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | The Africa Groundwater Atlas country hydrogeology maps]]

===[[Developing groundwater resources | Developing groundwater resources]]===

:- [[Groundwater development techniques | Introduction to groundwater development procedures]]

:- [[Borehole Drilling | Borehole Drilling]], including professionalising drilling

:- [[Manual drilling | Manual drilling]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes | Siting Boreholes]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance | Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance]]

:- [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield |Assessing source yield]]

:- [[Assessing Water Quality | Assessing water quality]]

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

:- [[Groundwater management organisations | Groundwater management organisations]]

:- [[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Groundwater use | Groundwater use in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]===

Information on and links to sources of [[Groundwater Data | groundwater data]] in Africa.

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Africa National Groundwater Databases | '''Inventory of national groundwater databases in Africa''']]

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

:-[[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

:-[[Urban groundwater in Africa | Urban groundwater in Africa]]

:-[[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | Groundwater and irrigation in Africa]]

:-[[Transboundary aquifers | Transboundary aquifers]]

===Case studies===

:- A series of [[Case studies | '''case studies''']] that illustrate different groundwater understanding and management issues across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

Information on key current and past groundwater research themes and projects in Africa.

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Groundwater Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

Links to some of the many professional networks and organisations offer support to those working in groundwater and hydrogeology in Africa.

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

Return to [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Additional resources

2024-02-26T15:23:33Z

LaurenGiles: /* Information resources on groundwater in Africa */

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

This page is still being developed. Please check back soon for more information.

==Information resources on groundwater in Africa==

These pages provide background information on many different aspects of groundwater and hydrogeology, with particular relevance to Africa, and links to more detailed resources.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

These pages have information on the geological and other environmental maps and graphs on the country pages: how they were developed, and links to original data sources.

:- [[Geography| Country boundaries and land surface elevation]]

:- [[Geology | Geology]]

:- [[Climate | Climate]]

:- [[Land cover | Land cover]]

:- [[Soil | Soil]]

:- [[Surface water | Surface water]]

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa:

:- [[Aquifer properties | Aquifer properties]]

:- [[Recharge | Recharge in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality in Africa]]

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Overview of groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]===

:- [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]

:- [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | The Africa Groundwater Atlas country hydrogeology maps]]

===[[Developing groundwater resources | Developing groundwater resources]]===

:- [[Groundwater development techniques | Introduction to groundwater development procedures]]

:- [[Borehole Drilling | Borehole Drilling]], including professionalising drilling

:- [[Manual drilling | Manual drilling]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes | Siting Boreholes]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance | Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance]]

:- [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield |Assessing source yield]]

:- [[Assessing Water Quality | Assessing water quality]]

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

:- [[Groundwater management organisations | Groundwater management organisations]]

:- [[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Groundwater use | Groundwater use in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]===

Information on and links to sources of [[Groundwater Data | groundwater data]] in Africa.

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Africa National Groundwater Databases | '''Inventory of national groundwater databases in Africa''']]

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

:-[[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

:-[[Urban groundwater in Africa | Urban groundwater in Africa]]

:-[[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | Groundwater and irrigation in Africa]]

:-[[Transboundary aquifers | Transboundary aquifers]]

===Case studies===

:- A series of [[Case studies | '''case studies''']] that illustrate different groundwater understanding and management issues across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

Information on key current and past groundwater research themes and projects in Africa.

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Groundwater Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

Links to some of the many professional networks and organisations offer support to those working in groundwater and hydrogeology in Africa.

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

Return to [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]

Additional resources

2024-02-26T15:23:16Z

LaurenGiles: /* Information resources on groundwater in Africa */ added solar pumping page

[[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

This page is still being developed. Please check back soon for more information.

==Information resources on groundwater in Africa==

These pages provide background information on many different aspects of groundwater and hydrogeology, with particular relevance to Africa, and links to more detailed resources.

===[[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| An overview of groundwater in Africa]]===

A brief [[Overview_of_Groundwater_in_Africa| background to groundwater resources and hydrogeological environments in Africa]]

===[[Supporting environmental information | Supporting geological and environmental information]]===

These pages have information on the geological and other environmental maps and graphs on the country pages: how they were developed, and links to original data sources.

:- [[Geography| Country boundaries and land surface elevation]]

:- [[Geology | Geology]]

:- [[Climate | Climate]]

:- [[Land cover | Land cover]]

:- [[Soil | Soil]]

:- [[Surface water | Surface water]]

===[[Hydrogeological Processes Africa| Key hydrogeological processes]]===

An overview of key hydrogeological processes, with particular relevance to Africa:

:- [[Aquifer properties | Aquifer properties]]

:- [[Recharge | Recharge in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality in Africa]]

===[[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Overview of groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]===

:- [[Hydrogeology Maps Of Africa | Groundwater and hydrogeological maps of Africa]]

:- [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Hydrogeology Maps | The Africa Groundwater Atlas country hydrogeology maps]]

===[[Developing groundwater resources | Developing groundwater resources]]===

:- [[Groundwater development techniques | Introduction to groundwater development procedures]]

:- [[Borehole Drilling | Borehole Drilling]], including professionalising drilling

:- [[Manual drilling | Manual drilling]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes | Siting Boreholes]]

:- [[Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance | Siting Boreholes:Reconnaissance]]

:- [[Assessing Groundwater Source Yield |Assessing source yield]]

:- [[Assessing Water Quality | Assessing water quality]]

===[[Groundwater Management | Groundwater management]]===

:- [[Groundwater management organisations | Groundwater management organisations]]

:- [[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Groundwater use | Groundwater use in Africa]]

:- [[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

===[[Groundwater Data | Groundwater data]]===

Information on and links to sources of [[Groundwater Data | groundwater data]] in Africa.

:- [[Groundwater monitoring | Groundwater monitoring]]

:- [[Africa National Groundwater Databases | '''Inventory of national groundwater databases in Africa''']]

===[[Key Groundwater Issues | Key groundwater issues]]===

:-[[Groundwater quality in Africa | Groundwater quality]]

:-[[Urban groundwater in Africa | Urban groundwater in Africa]]

:-[[Groundwater irrigation in Africa | Groundwater and irrigation in Africa]]

:-[[Transboundary aquifers | Transboundary aquifers]]

===Case studies===

:- A series of [[Case studies | '''case studies''']] that illustrate different groundwater understanding and management issues across Africa.

===[[Groundwater Research in Africa | Groundwater Research in Africa]]===

Information on key current and past groundwater research themes and projects in Africa.

===[[Groundwater Educational Resources | Groundwater Training and Educational Resources]]===

Information and resources on online training courses and course material for water professionals, and educational resources to help explain groundwater issues and hydrogeology.

===[[Groundwater Organisations in Africa | Groundwater Organisations in Africa]]===

Links to some of the many professional networks and organisations offer support to those working in groundwater and hydrogeology in Africa.

===[[UN Year of Groundwater | UN Year of Groundwater]]===

===[[Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa | Solar Groundwater Pumping in Africa]]===

Return to [[Africa Groundwater Atlas Home | Africa Groundwater Atlas]] >> Resource Pages

[[Category:Additional resources]]
[[Category:Africa Groundwater Atlas]]