Climate Change Projections - Revision history

LaurenGiles: /* Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater */ SDGs acronym claritfication

2024-03-18T10:25:24Z

Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater: SDGs acronym claritfication

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	[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.		[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.
	[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.		[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement] , [https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework] and [https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals] (SDGs) are among other treaties and agreements with the goal of addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change on a global scale. [https://unric.org/en/sdg-6/ SDG6] focusses on water access, management, and sanitation.

	===References===		===References===

LaurenGiles: /* References */ MacDonald et al 2019 link

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References: MacDonald et al 2019 link

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	MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3		MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

	MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821		MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands]. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

	McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.		McCleery, R. et al., 2018: Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas. Biological Conservation, 226, 54–62, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020.

LaurenGiles: /* Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater */ fixing MacDonald et al 2019 link

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Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater: fixing MacDonald et al 2019 link

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	===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===		===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===
	Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://~~doi~~.org/10.1088/1748-9326/~~ab2821~~ (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].		Groundwater storage can provide resilient drinking water supplies even under drying conditions and severe drought with storage replenished by intense rainfall events. A study by [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7 Cuthbert et al] showed that there is medium confidence that increased precipitation intensity enhances groundwater recharge. Groundwater studies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f (MacDonald et al., 2019)]; [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 (MacAllister et al., 2020)] have shown that provided systems are built and maintained to a reasonable standard, groundwater-based services are resilient. However, in the context of increased abstraction of water for irrigation and consumptive uses, these pressures could deplete groundwater storage [https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00378-6 (Scanlon et al., 2023)].

	[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.		[https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3 MacAllister et al, 2020] conducted an analysis of performance data from over 5000 water points collected during the 2015-16 El Niño drought in Ethiopia. Their findings showed that problems were largely confined to areas dependent on unprotected rivers, streams and ponds, relying on hand dug wells and springs or deep motorised boreholes that broke or ran out of fuel due to increasing demand. Boreholes equipped with simple handpumps were much more resilient, provided they were maintained.

LaurenGiles: /* Summary of climate change impacts on Africa */ fixing McCleery et al link

2024-03-18T10:19:50Z

Summary of climate change impacts on Africa: fixing McCleery et al link

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	*Biodiversity loss		*Biodiversity loss
	**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].		**Increasing temperatures might have contributed to the declining abundance and range in size of South African birds [https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-role-of-thermal-physiology-in-recent-declines-a-Milne-Cunningham/b406a5d035ea750f788f4a9e47902b1af4f10ca3 (Milne et al., 2015)].
	**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.~~sciencedirect~~.~~com~~/~~science~~/~~article~~/~~abs~~/~~pii~~/~~S0006320718306384n~~ (McCleery et al., 2018)].		**An increase in woody cover has led to a decrease in occurrence of bird, reptile and mammal species that require a grassy habitat [https://www.themccleerylab.org/uploads/6/0/8/0/60804587/mccleery_et_al._2018_animal_diversity_declines_with_broad-scale_homogenization_of_canopy_cover_in_african_savannas.pdf (McCleery et al., 2018)].
	**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].		**Warming of water temperature in several lakes from 0.2°C to 3.2°C, over 1927-2014, has been attributed to human-caused climate change [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004 (Ogutu-Ohwayo et al., 2016)]. This, along with changes in rainfall and reduced windspeed, caused changes in the physical and chemical properties of inland water bodies, reducing water quality, affecting the productivity of algae, invertebrates and fish [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260591243_Associations_between_climate_water_environment_and_phytoplankton_production_in_African_lakes (Ndebele-Murisa, 2014)].

LaurenGiles: /* References */

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References

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	MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3		MacAllister, D.J., MacDonald, A.M., Kebede, S., Godfrey, S. and Calow, R.C. (2020). Comparative performance of rural water supplies during drought. Nature Communications 11, Article No: 1099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14839-3

	MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821		MacDonald, A.M., Bell, R.A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A.A., Lapworth, D.J., Black, E. and Calow, R.C. (2019). Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian highlands. Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019) 095003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2821

LaurenGiles: /* References */ references hyperlinks/formatting

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References: references hyperlinks/formatting

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	IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.		IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report. Longer Report.

	~~IPCC report -~~ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/		[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ IPCC report, Chapter 9]

	IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).		IPCC, 2018c: Summary for Policymakers[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, In press pp. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (accessed 25/10/2020).
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	Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.		Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

	~~The Paris Agreement (~~https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement)		[https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement The Paris Agreement]

	Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6		Scanlon, B.R., Fakhreddine, S., Rateb, A. et al (2023). Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 87–101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00378-6
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	Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.		Simpson, N.P., Shearing, C.D. and Dupont, B. (2019). Climate gating: A case study of emerging responses to Anthropocene Risks. Climate Risk Management, Volume 26, 2019, 100196, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196.

	~~UNISDR Sendai Framework (~~https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf		[https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf UNISDR Sendai Framework]

	~~2030 Sustainable Development Goals (~~https://sdgs.un.org/goals)		[https://sdgs.un.org/goals 2030 Sustainable Development Goals]

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */

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Climate Change Projections

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	*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.		*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

	*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except ~~Northern~~ and ~~Southwestern~~ Africa.		*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.

	===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===		===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

LaurenGiles: /* Climate Change Projections */ capitalisation

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Climate Change Projections: capitalisation

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	*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.		*In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.

	*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except ~~northern~~ and ~~southwestern~~ Africa.		*The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except Northern and Southwestern Africa.

	===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===		===Summary of climate change impacts on Africa===

LaurenGiles: /* References */ formatting

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References: formatting

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	===References===		===References===
			Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.

	Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.		Abiodun, G. J. et al., 2018: Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2018, 3143950, doi:10.1155/2018/3143950.

	~~Abidoye, B. O. and A. F. Odusola, 2015: Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of African Economies, 24 (2), 277–301, doi:10.1093/jae/eju033.~~

	Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).		Adams, L., 2018: Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture. SIWI, Stockholm. Available at: https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23/05/2021).
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	Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.		Ndebele-Murisa, M. R., 2014: Associations between Climate, Water Environment and Phytoplankton Production in African Lakes. In: Phytoplankton: Biology, Classification and Environmental Impacts[Teresa, M. S. (ed.)]. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. , NewYork, pp. 37–64. ISBN 978-1-62948-655-0.



	Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.		Ogutu-Ohwayo, R. et al., 2016: Implications of climate variability and change for African lake ecosystems, fisheries productivity, and livelihoods. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42 (3), 498–510, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.03.004.

LaurenGiles: /* Impacts on water supply */

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Impacts on water supply

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	At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].		At a global scale, it’s projected that extreme daily precipitation events will intensify by approximately 7% for every 1°C of global warming [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (IPCC 2021)]. Flood risk will potentially double between 1.5°C and 3°C of warming. Flooding poses direct risks to water and sanitation infrastructure and amplifies risk of water contamination and disease. Populations in rural, low-income areas with limited/no sanitation or safe water are most exposed to health risks, as heavy rains can flood latrines, spreading faecal matter into unprotected/poorly protected water sources [https://www.gwp.org/en/WashClimateResilience/ (Calow et al., 2017)].

	It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town ~~has~~ experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.		It is likely that large areas of North Africa will become drier over the coming decades [https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ (IPCC Interactive Atlas, 2021)]. With warmer climate intensifying both wet and dry weather, drought risks are projected to increase over much larger areas [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ (IPCC, 2021)]. With long-term decline in rainfall or increased drought risk comes a threat to the safe and continuous supply of drinking water. Even short interruptions or reversion to unprotected sources has been shown to increase risks to health [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.01.018 (Hunter et al., 2009)]. More basic water supply systems (e.g. shallow dug wells and rooftop rainwater harvesting) are most at risk from reduced rainfall. These problems exist beyond low income, rural areas. For instance, between 2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe drought where the city’s water supply is dependent on streamflow from a relatively small area, made up of several mountainous catchments. As dam levels dropped to less than 20% of their capacity, authorities were forced to plan for Day Zero when taps would run dry [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100196 (Simpson, et al., 2019)]. This highlighted issues with over-reliance on one water source and the importance of groundwater storage as a buffer against drought and longer-term aridity.

	===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===		===Adaptations to climate change involving groundwater===