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==Climate Change Projections== | ==Climate Change Projections== | ||
Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-9/ (IPCC Chapter 9)]. | |||
With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes [https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 Harrington et al, 2016]. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf (IPCC 2019)]. | |||
Based on projections by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)], global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts. | |||
Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the [https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf IPCC (2023)] | |||
• North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation. | |||
• Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons. | |||
• In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected. | |||
• The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa. | |||
Revision as of 15:31, 14 March 2024
Africa Groundwater Atlas >> Resource pages >> Climate Change Projections
Please cite page as: Africa Groundwater Atlas. 2023. Climate Change Projections. British Geological Survey. Accessed [date you accessed the information]. https://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/index.php/Climate_Change_Projections.
Climate Change Projections
Of all the continents, Africa is among the lowest contributors of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and currently has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions. However, Africa has already experienced, and is projected to experience further widespread impacts from human-induced climate change (IPCC Chapter 9).
With increased global GHG emissions, mean temperature is projected to rise over the whole continent of Africa and temperature extremes are projected to increase. At lower latitudes, large increases in frequency of daily temperature extremes (hotter than 99.9% of historical records) are projected for early in the 21st century compared to nations at higher latitudes Harrington et al, 2016. Previous assessments have shown that hot days and nights have become more frequent in Africa and heatwaves have become longer and more frequent. Drying is projected, particularly for West and southwestern Africa (IPCC 2019).
Based on projections by the IPCC (2023), global warming of 1.5°C with an initial overshoot to 2°C will likely cause an intensification of the global water cycle, with impacts on precipitation including increased variability and seasonality, more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and droughts.
Projections for precipitation at the regional scale by the IPCC (2023)
• North-East and Central Africa as well as the Ethiopian Highlands are projected to see increased mean annual precipitation.
• Central Sahel and East Africa are projected to see longer and wetter wet seasons.
• In Coastal West, Northern and Southern Africa decreased mean annual precipitation is projected.
• The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is projected to increase across most of the continent, except northern and southwestern Africa.